Off-plan controls 73% of Dubai's real estate market.

Data from Cavendish Maxwell, published by Gulf News on May 13, highlights a structural paradox in the Dubai market for the first quarter of 2026: off-plan real estate simultaneously dominates sales and slows down in launches.

The share of off-plan in total residential transactions stood at 73%. More than 32,300 units were sold for a total of AED 105.5 billion — a year-on-year increase of 35%. Moreover, 94% of all off-plan purchases in March were made directly from developers, bypassing the secondary market. Buyers choose off-plan for obvious reasons: a lower entry point, flexible payment plans, a newer product, and recently, the ability to use Oqood as a basis for a Golden Visa without full payment.

But there is another side. New launches in the first quarter totalled approximately 22,900 units across 90 projects — 57% lower than a year earlier and the lowest quarterly figure in more than two years. Cavendish Maxwell attributes this to the geopolitical pause in March: developers held back launches, unwilling to bring new projects to market at a time of reduced buyer appetite.

For the buyer, this creates a non-linear situation. On one hand, high demand for off-plan with limited new supply means less choice in new projects and fewer opportunities for negotiation. On the other hand, the ready property market, where supply is growing thanks to record handovers: in the first quarter, developers delivered 12,900 units — a three-year high, 23% above the same period in 2025. Another 29,600 units are scheduled for delivery in the second quarter, although Cavendish Maxwell expects the actual figure to be in the range of 9,000–15,000 due to typical delays.

In this gap lies an opportunity for a specific type of buyer. Those looking for a ready apartment to immediately generate rental income or move into find themselves in a market with growing supply and sellers who have to compete with each other. Those who want to enter off-plan for long-term capital appreciation have fewer new project options than the previous quarter — but can count on the pause in launches to curb oversupply and support prices for already purchased properties.

Ultra-luxury remains in a category of its own, unaffected by market conditions: 100 deals above AED 50 million totalling AED 10.2 billion — a year-on-year increase of 79%.

Properties in Dubai — off-plan and ready properties, all areas: discount-house.com/dubai