The Population of Italy in 2024-2026: Statistics, History, and Demographic Crisis
Italy's Demographic Portrait in 2026: Fertility Crisis and the Role of Migration
Italy's population in 2026 has stabilized at approximately 58.3–58.5 million people, confirming the trend of gradual depopulation that began after the peak in 2014. The key indicator remains the critically low Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which, according to ISTAT forecasts, stands at about 1.22 children per woman — significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. Natural population decline persists despite minor fluctuations: in 2025, the difference between births and deaths was approximately -280,000 people. Migration continues to be the only demographic buffer. The share of the foreign-born population has reached 8.7%, with this figure exceeding 12% in Northern regions such as Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna. It is migrants who provide the main influx of young working-age population and create new demand for rental and purchase of real estate, especially in large urban agglomerations and industrial zones.
The Impact of Demographics on the Real Estate Market: Prices, Trends, and Regional Disparities
Structural demographic shifts directly reflect on Italy's housing market. Persistent population aging and youth outflow from small towns intensify polarization. Demand and prices are concentrated in economic hubs, while inland and southern areas face declining values. As of early 2026, the average price per square meter on the secondary market in Milan is €5,200–5,800, in Rome — €4,100–4,700, and in Florence and Bologna — €4,500–5,200. At the same time, in depressed regions of Southern Italy, such as Calabria or inland areas of Sicily, prices can drop to €800–1,200 per m². Rental rates show a similar gap: renting a one-bedroom apartment in central Milan costs €1,000–1,400 per month, while in Catania or Bari, it's €350–500. New construction is concentrated in major cities and their suburbs, offering compact apartments and lofts, demand for which is driven by young professionals and migrants.
Historical Roots and Future Challenges: From Ancient Abundance to Modern Realities
To understand the current situation, one must look to history. The population of the Apennine Peninsula has experienced dramatic fluctuations: from 8–10 million during the Roman Empire to 10 million after the 14th-century crisis. During the Risorgimento (1861), the fertility rate reached 5 children per woman. A rapid demographic transition began in the 1870s in the North and had spread across the entire country by the 1960s. By 2026, the share of people aged 65 and over has approached 24%, creating pressure on social systems. The future of the Italian real estate market will depend on the authorities' ability to combine immigration policy with programs for revitalizing inland territories. Investments in the "smart" renovation of historic housing in the South and the development of logistical hubs could become a response to the challenges of aging and depopulation, turning a demographic crisis into an opportunity for sustainable development.