Real estate investments in Spain may grow by 5–10% in 2026

What's happening in the market and why it matters

Real estate investments in Spain are set to reach record levels in 2026. According to the CBRE report «Real Estate Market Outlook 2026», investment volume will reach €19–21 billion, which is 5–10% higher than in 2025. The market is returning to 2018 levels, when the historic peak of €20.38 billion was recorded. For private investors, this is a signal: Spanish assets are entering an active growth phase. But buying an apartment in Madrid or a villa on the Costa del Sol requires more than just knowing forecasts. You need to understand the legal framework of the transaction. Spanish legislation offers transparent mechanisms for non-residents. The main trigger in recent years has been the Golden Visa (residence permit for investments from €500,000). However, in 2026, the program is at risk of tightening. The tax burden varies: for new builds, 10% IVA and 1.5% stamp duty (AJD) are paid; in the secondary market — ITP from 6% to 10% depending on the autonomous community. The annual property tax IBI is 0.4–1.1% of the cadastral value. Rental income for non-residents is taxed at 24%.

Growth factors: rates, demand and structural deficit

CBRE identifies three drivers for 2026. First — stabilization of interest rates at around 2%, making mortgages accessible even for non-residents. Spanish banks offer up to 70% of the property value at 3–4% per annum. Second — domestic demand, fueled by employment and tourism growth. Third — the structural housing deficit: today there is a shortage of more than 700,000 units, with an annual need of 150,000–200,000 new homes. This creates constant upward pressure on prices. For investors, this means waiting for prices to fall is pointless. Even the moderate growth forecast for 2026 is 3–5% appreciation in the mass market and up to 7% in the premium segment. The most liquid assets remain rental properties — Build to Rent and student housing, where yields reach 5–7%. Institutional capital has already entered this segment; private investors should follow suit.

Housing, rentals and real prices in 2026

The residential sector remains the main beneficiary of 2026. The CBRE forecast confirms: rental demand will grow while supply lags behind. Developers are focusing on two poles: affordable housing with government support and luxury real estate. The average price per square meter in Madrid is €3,500–5,500 in business districts and reaches €12,000 in premium zones — Salamanca, Recoletos, Almagro. Barcelona maintains €4,000–6,500 per meter in the center and the 22@ district. On the coast, the situation differs. The Costa del Sol offers entry from €2,800 per meter in Benalmádena to €5,500+ in Marbella. Valencia and Málaga are growing markets with potential +10–15% over 2–3 years. Here you can still find properties for €2,500–3,200 per meter. The Canary Islands and Costa Blanca are the most affordable: from €1,800 per meter, but tourist rental yields here reach 6–7%.

Offices: Madrid and Barcelona as capital magnets

The office segment has fully recovered. In Madrid's business districts — AZCA, Nuevo Norte, Paseo de la Castellana — and Barcelona's — 22@, Diagonal Mar — vacancy rates do not exceed 4%. This is 2007 levels. Rental rates for quality Class A assets are rising, yields have stabilized at 4.5–5.5%. Direct entry into the office segment is difficult for private investors — it is dominated by funds and Socimis. But the trend indirectly affects housing: increased business activity drives rental demand from expats and digital nomads. Investing in apartments near business hubs is a protected strategy for 2026.

Hotels, tourism and retail

Spain remains a tourism giant. In 2026, visitor growth will slow, but the average check will increase. Investors are betting on two poles: ultra-luxury — Ibiza, Marbella, Sotogrande — and budget formats. Renovation of old hotels to new standards is the main trend. Private capital niches include purchasing apart-hotels on the coast, guest houses in less mature destinations — Alicante, Cádiz, the Canary Islands. The yield on such properties with proper management reaches 6–8%, above the market average. Retail is also recovering from the crisis. Only assets that have undergone renovation and offer omnichannel experiences are successful. Premium shopping centers in Madrid and Barcelona have shown visitor flow growth for the third consecutive year. Street retail on central avenues — Gran Vía, Paseo de Gracia — is recovering rental rates. For investors with a budget from €500,000, purchasing commercial premises for long-term lease with 5–6% yields is possible. The main risk is tightening regulation of tourist rentals in city centers, which may shift demand to residential areas.

What an investor needs to know in 2026

The Spanish market has entered a growth cycle — buy now. Legal protection: mandatory Nota Simple check in the Catastro, notarized contract, obtaining an NIE. Entry budget: from €1,800 per meter in the Canaries to €12,000 per meter in Madrid's premium districts. Yields: rentals provide 3–7% depending on location and segment. Taxes: budget 10–12% above the purchase price. Mortgages: available for non-residents, rates 3–4%, down payment 30–40%. The main advice from realtors: don't chase hyper-yields, focus on reliability and location. 2026 is a seller's market, and the winner will be the one who decides faster.